ESHM13 - Seismogenic Sources

The SHARE hazard source model explicitly treats uncertainties, epistemic and aleatory, by using the logic-tree approach. For the first time, a Euro-Mediterranean wide model considers three approaches to assess the occurrence of earthquake activity:

• a classic Area Source (AS) Model,
• a model that combines activity rates based on fully parameterised faults imbedded in large background seismicity zones, the Fault-Source & Background (FSBG) Model, and
• a kernel-smoothed model that generates earthquake rate forecasts based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity (SEIFA).

These three models use different assumptions to estimate earthquake activity rates in the European region.