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ESHM13 - Seismogenic Sources

The SHARE hazard source model explicitly treats uncertainties, epistemic and aleatory, by using the logic-tree approach. For the first time, a Euro-Mediterranean wide model considers three approaches to assess the occurrence of earthquake activity:

  • a classic Area Source (AS) Model,
  • a model that combines activity rates based on fully parameterised faults imbedded in large background seismicity zones, the Fault-Source & Background (FSBG) Model, and
  • a kernel-smoothed model that generates earthquake rate forecasts based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity (SEIFA).

These three models use different assumptions to estimate earthquake activity rates in the European region.